![Michael MacKelvie](/img/default-banner.jpg)
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Michael MacKelvie
США
Добавлен 11 мар 2020
Here to examine and challenge existing biases in life and sports...fun stories, and a lot of bad data.
Fewest World Records Ever - Humans Have Athletically Peaked
These Olympics were weird.
On the one hand, they were exciting, fun, and even lived up to the hype.
On the other hand, they were demoralizing - that one line we all chase after, even as viewers…despite adding dozens of new events, we as a species are struggling MIGHTILY to break world records (outside of the velodrome)…
Why? What factors are causing this?
It depends on where you look…in this video, I discuss closed-skill sports limits, such as sprinting…and open-skilled sports limits…
I spoke with several people to make this video possible and I want to thank them - Dr. Timothy Olds, who wrote the original paper and counted the “Big Bang of Body Types” along with his partner.
Special thanks to ...
On the one hand, they were exciting, fun, and even lived up to the hype.
On the other hand, they were demoralizing - that one line we all chase after, even as viewers…despite adding dozens of new events, we as a species are struggling MIGHTILY to break world records (outside of the velodrome)…
Why? What factors are causing this?
It depends on where you look…in this video, I discuss closed-skill sports limits, such as sprinting…and open-skilled sports limits…
I spoke with several people to make this video possible and I want to thank them - Dr. Timothy Olds, who wrote the original paper and counted the “Big Bang of Body Types” along with his partner.
Special thanks to ...
Просмотров: 564 070
Видео
The World vs. Team USA - How the American Reign Could End
Просмотров 81 тыс.21 день назад
Wow... This tournament is loaded...the most talented team ever will face the toughest competition ever. Yet, most of the American populus following a Serbia win believes we will "roll" (see "roll" montage). I don't see it this way, at all...as much as I want the American's to roll, there are roughly 8-10 teams that could beat Team USA. With the most loaded team ever, how is this possible? In th...
Momentum isn't Magic - Hot Hand Analysis
Просмотров 187 тыс.Месяц назад
Momentum is magic…right? This…was a massive project…and trip. Like many, I had grown up reading studies on “the hot hand”, and it seemed as though every legitimate study had proven one thing…it didn’t exist. Even today, when one searches “the hot hand” they are met with countless articles, studies, and statisticians touting that it is a cognitive illusion. Momentum is a form of witchcraft for t...
“Home” isn’t what it used to be in the NBA…why?
Просмотров 124 тыс.2 месяца назад
“Home” isn’t what it used to be in the NBA…why? It is well known that homecourt advantage is powerful in the NBA, and in basketball; however, over the past few decades, this effect has been changing…substantially. What factors contribute to this advantage, and how can we statistically measure these factors? I have seen many analysts and individuals discuss the possible causation…but very few ha...
Playoff Mode - Just How Different Are the NBA Playoffs? An analysis…
Просмотров 228 тыс.3 месяца назад
Are the NBA Playoffs...truly different? Statistically different than the regular season, or are we simply fooling ourselves? Undoubtedly, the playoffs FEEL different, but often times our intuition can fool us. We decided to test out several playoff differences, including defense, officiating, score differential, shooting...and much more. On a personal note, this year is especially fun given the...
We Measured "Luck" in the NFL. It’s a BIG deal.
Просмотров 200 тыс.4 месяца назад
What role does luck play in football? In sports? First, we need to figure out how we can measure “luck”…if we can measure it, then we can examine it. Michael Mauboussin has done some research on this very topic…laying out the different sports from “Skill” to “Luck”. However, this isn’t the main fixation of this video…instead, we focus in on the role of luck in football. Specifically, it’s impac...
Upsets Are Surging in March - Here’s Why
Просмотров 91 тыс.5 месяцев назад
March Madness…has been getting crazier. The last ten years has lead to an increase in upsets, but why? What is causing this, and how have underdogs statistically faired? Better yet, why are we so drawn to underdogs? Betting on the underdog is a bold move…but it might not be. In this video, I went back through about forty years of betting history, and tournament data. I knew the game had changed...
The Clutch GOAT...(it's not who you think).
Просмотров 288 тыс.5 месяцев назад
Who is the most clutch shooter of all time? To understand this, we need to first define what clutch is… Clutch is a vague term - so I worked with Mike Beuoy to build out multiple charts, and variations of “clutch”. Keep in mind, advanced stats didn’t start in the NBA until 1996, so it’s difficult to go further back than this… The NBA defines clutch as a five-point game with five minutes left in...
Investigating the Accuracy of College Football Recruiting Rankings
Просмотров 282 тыс.6 месяцев назад
Every year, several recruiting sites (247 Sports, Rivals, ESPN) release their recruiting rankings…but, just how accurate are these rankings? How good are we at predicting potential? This…was a project. I spent weeks (with the friendly help of others) building spreadsheets full of prior recruiting years (2-5 Stars with Rivals and 247Sports). We used Rivals for the All-Pro examination, as many of...
Does Losing Lead to Winning? An Analysis of the Winning Paradox in Sports
Просмотров 342 тыс.8 месяцев назад
A comeback happens seemingly every game…but do teams actually play better when their losing…? And worse when they’re ahead? In this video, we analyze the elasticity of comebacks (specifically in the NBA) and the studies done around potential causation. The NBA has long been a league where it is known that a 10-20 point lead can evaporate within one quarter…but how much of this is an actual tren...
Solving Basketball - Exposing the NBA’s Biggest Inefficiency
Просмотров 433 тыс.8 месяцев назад
Do you think that basketball...has been solved? Pundits would claim that "the game is simple"...just follow the fundamentals, and winning will transpire. Additionally, NBA analysts believe we have hit a plateau, and that easy advantages (such as 3 vs. 2) are no longer to be found. Is this the end of strategic evolution..? Are there no more hoops secrets to be found, and all that matters now is ...
The World is Teaching America How to Play Basketball - Data Analysis
Просмотров 1,3 млн9 месяцев назад
Team USA suffered two losses in the recent FIBA World Cup…and critics have been quick to point out “roster continuity” and “size”. How accurate is this? What else might be to blame? Chapters 00:00 World Basketball vs. USA “A New War” 00:59 My Experience Overseas 01:33 Excuse #1 “Roster” Looking Past the Noise… 03:07 Excuse #2 “Wait…what?” 03:50 Rebounding/Size Fallacies 6:45 Spacing, and Potent...
Renting vs. Buying a Home - The Strange Evolution and Prospect of Owning the Earth
Просмотров 23 тыс.10 месяцев назад
Renting vs. Buying a Home - The Strange Evolution and Prospect of Owning the Earth
You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same
Просмотров 927 тыс.Год назад
You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same
The Big Myth - Starting and Finding a Successful Business
Просмотров 12 тыс.Год назад
The Big Myth - Starting and Finding a Successful Business
Your Future Income and College Choice - Bad Advice, Bad Data, and Bad Decisions
Просмотров 17 тыс.Год назад
Your Future Income and College Choice - Bad Advice, Bad Data, and Bad Decisions
Choosing the Right College - The Hidden Effect That Changes Everything
Просмотров 10 тыс.Год назад
Choosing the Right College - The Hidden Effect That Changes Everything
Choosing Your College - How College Rankings Affect Your Future Income
Просмотров 16 тыс.Год назад
Choosing Your College - How College Rankings Affect Your Future Income
The Value of a Finance Degree in Today's Job Market
Просмотров 182 тыс.Год назад
The Value of a Finance Degree in Today's Job Market
Steph Curry done went and proved this in one quarter of that Olympic final. Also, fantastic video, just found your channel and loving it
Man i never sub when people tell me to in the video.. but man, i didn't even hesitate to smash your sub button. you're really one of one. you make videos a 10 million subscriber channel will make and no one would think the quality doesn't match the quantity of the channel. Earned my respect man.
Most wont believe, but the emphasis on individual is a psyop aimed at disseminating narcissism & hindering collective effort.
So a video about world records has more than half of its content about basketball, a sport where there ARE no world records. Makes sense. By the way, most of the world doesn't care about basketball.
I’m gonna say it. Wemby is definitely the peak human form for basketball, he is built for the sport, just like Wilt Chamberlain was.
voice is too silent
TBH, I keep waiting for statistics to discover that what we perceive to be skill is just some players being more successful by random chance. But that could just be my own envy showing through. ;)
Re: the point about FloJo's records in the women's sprints. Her 10.49 world record from '88 should never have been ratified, as there is extremely strong evidence that the wind reader malfunctioned to produce a legal dead wind, instead of the much more likely +4.0 to +5.0 m/s tailwind. All other 100m heats on that day showed such readings, the wind reader for the long jump that happened at the same time and perpendicularly to her run showed such readings, and all the other athletes on the day outperformed their PBs by an amount that statistically is almost perfectly accounted for by a significant tailwind. Besides, Elaine Thompson-Herah has ran a very close 10.54 under legal conditions in 2021, in contrast to Bolt's records on the men's side that are >100 ms faster than the closest competitors, Blake and Gay. FloJo's record isn't comparable to the men's records at all, IMO. Add to this the fact that FloJo competed in a time where athletes were only tested for PEDs in competition, which allowed them to use PEDs in training and taper off them before competition. She then retired immediately at the age of 30 when year-round, out-of-competition testing was to be introduced. The women's sprints are still very competitive, and the top talent today is very much holding its own against FloJo's inflated legacy. They deserve the respect that that entails.
Steroids and blood doping 🗿
I mean with the announcement of the enhanced games and people running faster than Usain bolt, unless your purely counting natural strength then no were about to see a shit ton of records broken via those exact peak athletes but now on steriods
It’s funny how much math is devoted to this and I love it. It has to exist. Shooting is a trained skill. It’s not luck. Feeling confident only makes you be more sure of your shot that’s been practiced for thousands of hours being unsure leads to overthinking. Secondly their study is a little swayed because it doesn’t account for where and how the shots were made. First no one has ever said he’s hot put him on the free throw line; you’re either good at the free throw or not. Plus it’s an entirely different shot and rhythm. Secondly was the first make uncontested the second a layup and the third a 12 footer. You’re not going to feel hot after those. Those are standard makes. But if you made two contested threes in a row you might feel super hot.
Europe's starting lineup: Luka Doncic Bogdan Bogdanovic Franz Wagner Giannis Antetokounmpo Nikola Jokic Let's see who wins then...30+ pts difference when the game is over.
Don’t think they have peaked because there are still medicine and health boundaries and advances we haven’t reached. Also using drugs to increase athleticism which rn is no really legal in any leagues
Of course the dream team would beat todays team.
You have no idea what you're talking about when it comes to 🏀 😂 you have no clue 😂😂 i wish they could play each other to put this bullshit to rest sometimes you have to admit you don't know everything Larry's 3 was there an all of the other great players could have done the same so just stop
This is a really good quality video
1:30 you use a historical, unmatched athletic outlier to identify a generic trend. Absolutely hilarious...
Think it's the drug testing, buddy
i only subscribed bc ur a blazers fan. u are different.
"Fooled by Randomness" now I know what you've been reading!
earned my sub. love the content💙
Your videos are so interesting and engaging. Please keep producing them.
In no way the 1992 Dream Team can beat today's USA Basketball Team. The 1992 Dream Team will receive the same treatment they gave to their opponents from today's Olympic basketball team.
This video was wrong, delete it
PEDs are a plague.
I loved this topic very interesting.
$25,000 in 1960 is equal to over $250,000 today; so not as meager as it may sound, but orders of magnitude less than the highest paid players today
GOUT GOUT WILL BREAK BOLTS 9.58s
I hate to rain on everyone’s parade here, but the math in the middle of this video is not good. The argument presented here for “correcting” the original study’s unsatisfying 49-45 margin into a much sexier 53-40 margin is based on a deeply erroneous analysis of the independent coin flip probability model. If the author had not simply thrown half the evidence out the window, they would have found that an independent fair coin shoots 50% after a hit and 50% after a miss. There is no intrinsic bias against hot streaks in the model. In fact, ignoring the HHH, HHM, MMH, and MMM cases fabricates with bad math the very bias the author claims was in the original study. The counterargument presented by “hot hand skeptics” is not that streaky shooting doesn’t occur; it’s that random independent events are also quite streaky themselves and that “hot hand” streakiness does not distinguish itself enough from random independent streakiness to lead to any useful conclusions about what, if any, non-random causes there may be for any particular streak.
Came to a logically supportable conclusion! Nice.
Cool video! One sport that did see some WRs, interestingly enough, is track cycling. The reason that is interesting is WRs in track cycling are much easier to break at high elevation in areas like Bolivia, Colombia, Central Mexico and Belarus. Of course cycling sees a drastically outsized contribution from equipment compared to other sports, and that is why the 2024 games were so interesting, some of the most outlandish bikes ever ridden were in action on track!
For Andre De Grasse, I think he made this time in his first attempt, and doesn't train for that specific moment. On another part, Jesse Owens was at his prime when he clocks 10.2 and 10.3, and was used to this surface. If Andre De Grasse has no choice to train on that because no modern track, I think he would be much closer to Jesse Owens' times. For me this comparison is totally unfair. Andre have a 1.1 second difference because of that. Jesse Owens would not have the same difference than Andre (I don't think at all on modern track Jesse was running 9.2 or 9.1 in the 100 meters). Yeah Jesse Owens was a very talented runner, but all this stuff is just speculation. We haven't a solution to see what time Jesse would run in modern era. Maybe sub 10, maybe not, impossible to know. And the opposite as well, we don't know how Usain Bolt would have run in 1936, maybe faster than 10.2, maybe not. All athletes have a different way to approach a track. It's the same problem for the wind, athletes would have a more profitable advantage of wind than others, so try to make a conversion to know what an athlete could run with maximum allowed wind or with 0 wind is really tricky. But for me, unless maybe a few exceptions where it's debatable (Serguei Bubka with modern preparation, or the 1980's in general like Flo Jo, Marita Koch, Jarmila Kratochvilova, and others), I think the best athletes are in this current generation. Even more when we consider maybe in the 1980', dopage and cheating were way more easy than now.
Bob Cousey catching strays💀
How did this video become a 92 dream team vs. 2024 Avengers discussion?????
I broke all the world records then retired.. that’s why none of the records are getting broken anymore
I was expecting an expose on the physiological limits
It’s not the humans that have athletically peaked, but the equipment we use (for now). Any major advancement is athletics is almost strictly due to advancements in technology.
I have been watching you for months now and all your productions are great! I am commenting for the algo when is YT gonna give you the Millions of Subs this channel has the production quality of and thus deserves?
Theyve peaked...for now. Give it twenty year
easy time create weak man... says it all
RUclips’s been so boring and then they recommend me this. We are so back 😛
All these records are due to technological innovations or changing standards and equipment. Also greater incentives and thus greater gene pools, as well as effort and training. Humans haven't evolved in 100 years.
bring back steroids in baseball
Weird bad calls make up for it
comparing only the ppg of the modern avengers and the dream team is a disservice to both teams. The Avengers would definitely not score as much as they are against Serbia and Germany against the Dream Team with 4/5 of them on NBA defensive teams multiple times.
The swimming theory is nonsense. The difference in how long we’ve been swimming vs running is minuscule on the larger scale of evolution. It’s probably that it’s become so much more popular in recent years
Where do you get all of your data?
Some records have been pushed by advancing equipment. No pole vaulting using steel poles ever cleared more than 15-1/2 feet. Now, with fiberglass/composite, 20+ feet is possible.
Check out the Enhanced Games!
Those dudes in that original study musta never played ball!